Nintendo announced earlier this year that they are working on new hardware code named NX. Nintendo hasn’t revealed many details, but there are lots of rumors, development kits have reportedly shipped, and multiple sources claim that it will launch next year.
Wedbush Securities Analyst Michael Pachter has been doing a little NX speculating of his own, predicting that it will likely sell for $300 or less. In a recent video, he also speculated on its chances of success, which he estimates at about 60%. Additionally, he suggested 30 million as a plausible sales figure.
“I would say modest potential that it bombs. I would give them a 60 percent chance of success, I think they are smart people, I think they have learned a lot from what they did wrong with the Wii U. Are they going to get the Wii magic back? Probably not. But if they go back to a conventional-like console, their only problem they have now is they are very late in the cycle so they’re not going to sell that many. Could they sell 30 million? Sure. They could sell enough to make a difference and make a profit. They’re not getting out of the handheld business until the sales drop to zero – three or four million a year. And that is probably five, seven or eight years out. So no, they’re not going to get out of hardware.” — Michael Pachter
Pachter’s projection would make NX sales roughly equal to those of Nintendo 64. Of course, there’s little official information from which predictions can be made at this time, but we’ll be hearing more next year.